Health risks of exposure to air pollution in areas where coal-fired power plants are located: protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Coal-fired power plants are major sources of air pollution which impact human health. Coal combustion byproducts released into the air include particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide. Exposure to fine particulate matter is associated with increased risk of mortality. This scoping review will examine and summarise the current literature on the health risks of exposure to air pollution in areas in which coal-fired power plants exist. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review will be conducted according to the Joanna Briggs Institute methodological framework and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. Five electronic databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar) will be searched for relevant articles. Studies will be included up until 31 January 2024. There will be no restriction on geographical area. The searches will be limited to studies published in English. Title, abstract, full-text screening and data extraction of relevant articles will be done by two independent reviewers. Discrepancies will be resolved by group discussion. The findings will be presented in tables with a narrative summary. This review will consider epidemiological studies and grey literature that report on the health risks of exposure to air pollution in areas where coal-fired power plants exist. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All data will be collected from published and grey literature. Ethics approval is therefore not required. We will submit our findings for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Climate Change and Human Health in Africa in Relation to Opportunities to Strengthen Mitigating Potential and Adaptive Capacity: Strategies to Inform an African "Brains Trust".

Background: Africa faces diverse and complex population/human health challenges due to climate change. Understanding the health impacts of climate change in Africa in all its complexity is essential for implementing effective strategies and policies to mitigate risks and protect vulnerable populations. This study aimed to outline the major climate change-related health impacts in Africa in the context of economic resilience and to seek solutions and provide strategies to prevent or reduce adverse effects of climate change on human health and well-being in Africa. Methods: For this narrative review, a literature search was conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, CAB Abstracts, MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We also searched the reference lists of retrieved articles for additional records as well as reports. We followed a conceptual framework to ensure all aspects of climate change and health impacts in Africa were identified. Results: The average temperatures in all six eco-regions of Africa have risen since the early twentieth century, and heat exposure, extreme events, and sea level rise are projected to disproportionately affect Africa, resulting in a larger burden of health impacts than other continents. Given that climate change already poses substantial challenges to African health and well-being, this will necessitate significant effort, financial investment, and dedication to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This review offers African leaders and decision-makers data-driven and action-oriented strategies that will ensure a more resilient healthcare system and safe, healthy populations-in ways that contribute to economic resiliency. Conclusions: The urgency of climate-health action integrated with sustainable development in Africa cannot be overstated, given the multiple economic gains from reducing current impacts and projected risks of climate change on the continent's population health and well-being. Climate action must be integrated into Africa's development plan to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, protect vulnerable populations from the detrimental effects of climate change, and promote economic development.

Identifying heat thresholds for South Africa towards the development of a heat-health warning system.

Exposure to heatwaves may result in adverse human health impacts. Heat alerts in South Africa are currently based on defined temperature-fixed threshold values for large towns and cities. However, heat-health warning systems (HHWS) should incorporate metrics that have been shown to be effective predictors of negative heat-related health outcomes. This study contributes to the development of a HHWS for South Africa that can potentially minimize heat-related mortality. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the association between maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) and population-adjusted mortality during summer months, and the effects were presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). District-level thresholds for the best predictor from these three metrics were estimated with threshold regression. The mortality dataset contained records of daily registered deaths (n = 8,476,532) from 1997 to 2013 and data for the temperature indices were for the same period. Maximum temperature appeared to be the most statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality with strong associations observed in 40 out of 52 districts. Maximum temperature was associated with increased risk of mortality in all but three of the districts. Our results also found that heat-related mortality was influenced by regional climate because the spatial distribution of the thresholds varied according to the climate zones across the country. On average, districts located in the hot, arid interior provinces of the Northern Cape and North West experienced some of the highest thresholds compared to districts located in temperate interior or coastal provinces. As the effects of climate change become more significant, population exposure to heat is increasing. Therefore, evidence-based HHWS are required to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity. The exceedance of the maximum temperature thresholds provided in this study could be used to issue heat alerts as part of effective heat health action plans.

Inadequate Access to Potable Water Impacts Early Childhood Development in Low-Income Areas in Cape Town, South Africa.

Background: Water and sanitation are vital to human health and well-being. While these factors have been studied in relation to health, very little has been done to consider such environmental risk factors with child development. Here, we investigated possible relations between household water access/storage and early childhood development in four low-income settlements in the City of Cape Town, Western Cape province of South Africa. Our objectives were 1) to determine water access/storage practices in dwellings of children; 2) to assess early childhood development; and 3) and to understand the relationship between water access/storage practices in relation to early childhood development. Methods: We used a questionnaire to assess household water risk factors and the International Development and Early Learning Assessment (IDELA) tool to assess child early learning / cognitive, socio-emotional and motor development. Results: Mean age of the children (N = 192) was 4 years and 55% were female. The mean IDELA score was 48% (range: 36-54%) where the higher the score, the better the child's development. Around 70% of households had a tap inside their dwelling and half said that they stored water with the largest percentage of storage containers (21%) being plastic/no lid. Child IDELA scores were lower for children living in households that did not have an indoor tap and for households who stored water. Conclusions: Given the risks associated with climate change and the already poor conditions many children face regarding water and sanitation, research is needed to further investigate these relations to provide evidence to support appropriate interventions and ensure healthy child development.

Exploring the Association between Ambient Temperature and Daily Hospital Admissions for Diarrhea in Mopani District, Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Diarrhea contributes significantly to global morbidity and mortality. There is evidence that diarrhea prevalence is associated with ambient temperature. This study aimed to determine if there was an association between ambient temperature and diarrhea at a rural site in South Africa. Daily diarrheal hospital admissions (2007 to 2016) at two large district hospitals in Mopani district, Limpopo province were compared to average daily temperature and apparent temperature (Tapp, 'real-feel' temperature that combined temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed). Linear regression and threshold regression, age-stratified to participants ≤5 years and >5 years old, considered changes in daily admissions by unit °C increase in Tapp. Daily ranges in ambient temperature and Tapp were 2-42 °C and -5-34 °C, respectively. For every 1 °C increase in average daily temperature, there was a 6% increase in hospital admissions for diarrhea for individuals of all ages (95% CI: 0.04-0.08; p < 0.001) and a 4% increase in admissions for individuals older than 5 years (95% CI: 0.02-0.05; p < 0.001). A positive linear relationship between average daily Tapp and all daily diarrheal admissions for children ≤5 years old was not statistically significant (95% CI: -0.00-0.03; p = 0.107). Diarrhea is common in children ≤5 years old, however, is more likely triggered by factors other than temperature/Tapp, while it is likely associated with increased temperature in individuals >5 years old. We are limited by lack of data on confounders and effect modifiers, thus, our findings are exploratory. To fully quantify how temperature affects hospital admission counts for diarrhea, future studies should include socio-economic-demographic factors as well as WASH-related data such as personal hygiene practices and access to clean water.

Relations between personal exposure to elevated concentrations of arsenic in water and soil and blood arsenic levels amongst people living in rural areas in Limpopo, South Africa.

Exposure to arsenic even at low levels can lead to adverse health outcomes, however, there is a paucity of research from South Africa in relation to human exposure to arsenic. We investigated long-term exposure of residents in Limpopo province, South Africa, in a cross-sectional study by analysing water, soil and blood arsenic concentrations from two arsenic-exposed (high and medium-low exposure) villages and one non-exposed (control) village. There were statistically significant differences in the distribution of arsenic in water, soil and blood amongst the three sites. The median drinking water arsenic concentration in the high-exposure village was 1.75 µg/L (range = 0.02 to 81.30 µg/L), 0.45 µg/L (range = 0.100 to 6.00 µg/L) in the medium- / low-exposure village and 0.15 µg/L (range = < limit of detection (LOD) to 29.30 µg/L) in the control site. The median soil arsenic concentration in the high-exposure village was 23.91 mg/kg (range = < LOD to 92.10 mg/kg) whilst arsenic concentrations were below the limit of detection in all soil samples collected from the medium-/low-exposure and control villages. In the high-exposure village, the median blood arsenic concentration was 1.6 µg/L (range = 0.7 to 4.2 µg/L); 0.90 µg/L (range = < LOD to 2.5 µg/L) in the medium-/low-exposure village and 0.6 µg/L (range = < LOD to 3.3 µg/L) in the control village. Significant percentages of drinking water, soil and blood samples from the exposed sites were above the internationally recommended guidelines (namely, 10 µg/L, 20 mg/kg and 1 µg/L, respectively). Majority of participants (86%) relied on borehole water for drinking and there was a significant positive correlation between arsenic in blood and borehole water (p-value = 0.031). There was also a statistically significant correlation between arsenic concentrations in participants' blood and soil samples collected from gardens (p-value = 0.051). Univariate quantile regression found that blood arsenic concentrations increased by 0.034 µg/L (95% CI = 0.02-0.05) for each one unit increase in water arsenic concentrations (p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, water source and homegrown vegetable consumption in multivariate quantile regression, participants from the high-exposure site had significantly higher blood concentrations than those in the control site (coefficient: 1.00; 95% CI = 0.25-1.74; p-value = 0.009) demonstrating that blood arsenic is a good biomarker of arsenic exposure. Our findings also provide new evidence for South Africa on the association between drinking water and arsenic exposure, emphasising the need for the provision of potable water for human consumption in areas with high environmental arsenic concentrations.

Melanoma crude incidence rates among White South Africans climbing as in other countries: urgent call for targeted skin cancer prevention and awareness campaigns.

[We have not prepared an abstract for the editorial but we can do so if required.].

The Risk of Orofacial Cleft Lip/Palate Due to Maternal Ambient Air Pollution Exposure: A Call for Further Research in South Africa.

Background: Despite being underreported, orofacial cleft lip/palate (CLP) remains in the top five of South Africa's most common congenital disorders. Maternal air pollution exposure has been associated with CLP in neonates. South Africa has high air pollution levels due to domestic burning practices, coal-fired power plants, mining, industry, and traffic pollution, among other sources. We investigated air pollutant levels in geographic locations of CLP cases. Methods: In a retrospective case series study (2006-2020) from a combined dataset by a Gauteng surgeon and South African Operation Smile, the maternal address at pregnancy was obtained for 2,515 CLP cases. Data from the South African Air Quality Information System was used to calculate annual averages of particulate matter (PM) concentrations of particles < 10 µm (PM10) and < 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Correlation analysis determined the relationship between average PM2.5/PM10 concentrations and CLP birth prevalence. Hotspot analysis was done using the Average Nearest Neighbor tool in ArcGIS. Results: Correlation analysis showed an increasing trend of CLP birth prevalence to PM10 (CC = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.38-0.77, p < 0.001) and PM2.5 (CC = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.42-0.77, p < 0.001). Hot spot analysis revealed that areas with higher concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 had a higher proclivity for maternal residence (z-score = -68.2, p < 0.001). CLP birth prevalence hotspot clusters were identified in district municipalities in the provinces of Gauteng, Limpopo, North-West, Mpumalanga, and Free State. KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape had lower PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations and were cold spot clusters. Conclusions: Maternal exposure to air pollution is known to impact the fetal environment and increase CLP risk. We discovered enough evidence of an effect to warrant further investigation. We advocate for a concerted effort by the government, physicians, researchers, non-government organizations working with CLP patients, and others to collect quality data on all maternal information and pollutant levels in all provinces of South Africa. Collaboration and data sharing for additional research will help us better understand the impact of air pollution on CLP in South Africa.

Developing a Healthy Environment Assessment Tool (HEAT) to Address Heat-Health Vulnerability in South African Towns in a Warming World.

Prolonged exposure to high temperatures can cause heat-related illnesses and accelerate death, especially in the elderly. We developed a locally-appropriate Healthy Environment Assessment Tool, or 'HEAT' tool, to assess heat-health risks among communities. HEAT was co-developed with stakeholders and practitioners/professionals from the Rustenburg Local Municipality (RLM), a setting in which heat was identified as a risk in an earlier study. Feedback was used to identify vulnerable groups and settings in RLM, consider opportunities and barriers for interventions, and conceptualize a heat-health vulnerability assessment tool for a heat-resilient town. Using information provided by the RLM Integrated Development Plan, the HEAT tool was applied in the form of eight indicators relating to heat-health vulnerability and resilience and areas were evaluated at the ward level. Indicators included population, poverty, education, access to medical facilities, sanitation and basic services, public transport, recreation/community centres, and green spaces. Out of 45 wards situated in the municipality, three were identified as critical risk (red), twenty-eight as medium-high risk (yellow), and six as low risk (green) in relation to heat-health vulnerability. Short-term actions to improve heat health resilience in the community were proposed and partnerships between local government and the community to build heat health resilience were identified.

An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat-associated mortality threshold: towards a heat health warning system.

Heatwaves can have severe impacts on human health extending from illness to mortality. These health effects are related to not only the physical phenomenon of heat itself but other characteristics such as frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves. Therefore, understanding heatwave characteristics is a crucial step in the development of heat-health warning systems (HHWS) that could prevent or reduce negative heat-related health outcomes. However, there are no South African studies that have quantified heatwaves with a threshold that incorporated a temperature metric based on a health outcome. To fill this gap, this study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal distribution and frequency of past (2014 - 2019) and future (period 2020 - 2039) heatwaves across South Africa. Heatwaves were defined using a threshold for diurnal temperature range (DTR) that was found to have measurable impacts on mortality. In the current climate, inland provinces experienced fewer heatwaves of longer duration and greater intensity compared to coastal provinces that experienced heatwaves of lower intensity. The highest frequency of heatwaves occurred during the austral summer accounting for a total of 150 events out of 270 from 2014 to 2019. The heatwave definition applied in this study also identified severe heatwaves across the country during late 2015 to early 2016 which was during the strongest El Niño event ever recorded to date. Record-breaking global temperatures were reported during this period; the North West province in South Africa was the worst affected experiencing heatwaves ranging from 12 to 77 days. Future climate analysis showed increasing trends in heatwave events with the greatest increases (80%-87%) expected to occur during summer months. The number of heatwaves occurring in cooler seasons is expected to increase with more events projected from the winter months of July and August, onwards. The findings of this study show that the identification of provinces and towns that experience intense, long-lasting heatwaves is crucial to inform development and implementation of targeted heat-health adaptation strategies. These findings could also guide authorities to prioritise vulnerable population groups such as the elderly and children living in high-risk areas likely to be affected by heatwaves.

Respiratory health among adolescents living in the Highveld Air Pollution Priority Area in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a global, public health emergency. The effect of living in areas with very poor air quality on adolescents' physical health is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of adverse respiratory health outcomes among adolescents living in a known air pollution hotspot in South Africa. METHODS: Ambient air quality data from 2005 to 2019 for the two areas, Secunda and eMbalenhle, in the Highveld Air Pollution Priority Area in Mpumalanga province, South Africa were gathered and compared against national ambient air pollution standards and the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines. In 2019, adolescents attending schools in the areas completed a self-administered questionnaire investigating individual demographics, socio-economic status, health, medical history, and fuel type used in homes. Respiratory health illnesses assessed were doctor-diagnosed hay fever, allergies, frequent cough, wheezing, bronchitis, pneumonia and asthma. The relationship between presence (at least one) or absence (none) of self-reported respiratory illness and risk factors, e.g., fuel use at home, was explored. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) of risk factors associated with respiratory illness adjusted for body mass index (measured by field assistants), gender, education level of both parents / guardians and socio-economic status. RESULTS: Particulate matter and ozone were the two pollutants most frequently exceeding national annual air quality standards in the study area. All 233 adolescent participants were between 13 and 17 years of age. Prevalence of self-reported respiratory symptoms among the participants ranged from 2% for 'ever' doctor-diagnosed bronchitis and pneumonia to 42% ever experiencing allergies; wheezing chest was the second most reported symptom (39%). Half (52%) of the adolescents who had respiratory illness were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke in the dwelling. There was a statistically significant difference between the presence or absence of self-reported respiratory illness based on the number of years lived in Secunda or eMbalenhle (p = 0.02). For a one-unit change in the number of years lived in an area, the odds of reporting a respiratory illness increased by a factor of 1.08 (p = 0.025, 95% CI = 1.01-1.16). This association was still statistically significant when the model was adjusted for confounders (p = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents living in air polluted areas experience adverse health impacts Future research should interrogate long-term exposure and health outcomes among adolescents living in the air polluted environment.

Applying a WASH Risk Assessment Tool in a Rural South African Setting to Identify Risks and Opportunities for Climate Resilient Communities.

Climate change threatens the health and well-being of populations. We conducted a risk assessment of two climate-related variables (i.e., temperature and rainfall) and associated water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)-related exposures and vulnerabilities for people living in Mopani District, Limpopo province, South Africa. Primary and secondary data were applied in a qualitative and quantitative assessment to generate classifications of risk (i.e., low, medium, or high) for components of hazard/threat, human exposure, and human vulnerability. Climate-related threats were likely to impact human health due to the relatively high risk of waterborne diseases and WASH-associated pathogens. Vulnerabilities that increased the susceptibility of the population to these adverse outcomes included environmental, human, physical infrastructure, and political and institutional elements. People of low socio-economic status were found to be least likely to cope with changes in these hazards. By identifying and assessing the risk to sanitation services and water supply, evidence exists to inform actions of government and WASH sector partners. This evidence should also be used to guide disaster risk reduction, and climate change and human health adaptation planning.

Household Air Pollution and Respiratory Symptoms a Month Before and During the Stringent COVID-19 Lockdown Levels 5 and 4 in South Africa.

Background: Household air pollution (HAP) is associated with adverse human health impacts. During COVID-19 Lockdown Levels 5 and 4 (the most stringent levels), South Africans remained at home, potentially increasing their exposure to HAP. Objectives: To investigate changes in fuel use behaviours/patterns of use affecting HAP exposure and associated HAP-related respiratory health outcomes during COVID-19 Lockdown Levels 5 and 4. Methods: This was a cross-sectional online and telephonic survey of participants from an existing database. Logistic regression and McNemar's test were used to analyse household-level data. Results: Among 2 505 participants, while electricity was the main energy source for cooking and heating the month before and during Lockdown Levels 5 and 4, some households used less electricity during Lockdown Levels 5 and 4 or switched to "dirty fuels." One third of participants reported presence of environmental tobacco smoke in the home, a source of HAP associated with respiratory illnesses. Prevalence of HAP-related respiratory health outcomes were <10% (except dry cough). Majority of households reported cooking more, cleaning more and spending more time indoors during Lockdown Levels 5 and 4 - potentially exposed to HAP. Conclusion: Should South Africa return to Lockdown Levels 5 or 4, awareness raising about the risks associated with HAP as well as messaging information for prevention of exposure to HAP, including environmental tobacco smoke, and associated adverse health impacts will be necessary.

The Association between Apparent Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Disease in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have a high disease burden both globally and in South Africa. They have also been found to be temperature-sensitive globally. The association between temperature and CVD morbidity has previously been demonstrated, but little is known about it in South Africa. It is important to understand how changes in temperature in South Africa will affect CVD morbidity, especially in rural regions, to inform public health interventions and adaptation strategies. This study aimed to determine the short-term effect of apparent temperature (Tapp) on CVD hospital admissions in Mopani District, Limpopo province, South Africa. A total of 3124 CVD hospital admissions records were obtained from two hospitals from 1 June 2009 to 31 December 2016. Daily Tapp was calculated using nearby weather station measurements. The association was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model with a negative binomial regression over a 21-day lag period. The fraction of morbidity attributable to non-optimal Tapp, i.e., cold (6-25 °C) and warm (27-32 °C) Tapp was reported. We found an increase in the proportion of admissions due to CVDs for warm and cold Tapp cumulatively over 21 days. Increasing CVD admissions due to warm Tapp appeared immediately and lasted for two to four days, whereas the lag-structure for the cold effect was inconsistent. A proportion of 8.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.1%, 13.7%) and 1.1% (95% CI: -1.4%, 3.5%) of the total CVD admissions was attributable to cold and warm temperatures, respectively. Warm and cold Tapp may increase CVD admissions, suggesting that the healthcare system and community need to be prepared in the context of global temperature changes.

Classroom Temperature and Learner Absenteeism in Public Primary Schools in the Eastern Cape, South Africa.

Children spend a significant proportion of their time at school and in school buildings. A healthy learning environment that supports children should be thermally conducive for learning and working. Here, we aimed to study the relations between indoor classroom temperatures and learner absenteeism as a proxy for children's health and well-being. This one-year prospective study that spanned two calendar years (from June 2017 to May 2018) entailed measurement of indoor classroom temperature and relative humidity, calculated as apparent temperature (Tapp) and collection of daily absenteeism records for each classroom in schools in and around King Williams Town, Eastern Cape province, South Africa. Classroom characteristics were collected using a standardized observation checklist. Mean indoor classroom temperature ranged from 11 to 30 °C, while mean outdoor temperature ranged from 6 °C to 31 °C during the sample period. Indoor classroom temperatures typically exceeded outdoor temperatures by 5 °C for 90% of the study period. While multiple factors may influence absenteeism, we found absenteeism was highest at low indoor classroom Tapp (i.e., below 15 °C). Absenteeism decreased as indoor Tapp increased to about 25 °C before showing another increase in absenteeism. Classroom characteristics differed among schools. Analyses of indoor classroom temperature and absenteeism in relation to classroom characteristics showed few statistically significant relations-although not exceptionally strong ones-likely because of the multiple factors that influence absenteeism. However, given the possible relationship between indoor temperature and absenteeism, there is a learning imperative to consider thermal comfort as a fundamental element of school planning and design. Furthermore, additional research on factors besides temperature that affect learner absenteeism is needed, especially in rural areas.

Waste Disposal Practices in Low-Income Settlements of South Africa.

Domestic solid waste is rapidly increasing due to accelerated population growth and urbanization. Improper waste disposal poses potential health risks and environmental concerns. Here, we investigated waste disposal practices in relation to household/dwelling characteristics in South African low-income communities. Data for 2014 to 2019 from a community-orientated primary care program were analyzed using logistic regression. Families who reported living in a shack were more likely to dump waste in the street. Households who reported using non-electric sources of fuel for heating/cooking, those who lacked proper sanitation, and those who did not have access to piped water inside the dwelling were more likely to dispose of waste by dumping it in the street/in the yard or burying it. Families living in low-income settlements are at risk of solid waste exposure and this situation is exacerbated by poor access to piped water, proper sanitation, and electricity.

Lagged Association between Climate Variables and Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in South Africa.

Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization in South Africa. Climate change could potentially affect its incidence via changes in meteorological conditions. We investigated the delayed effects of temperature and relative humidity on pneumonia hospital admissions at two large public hospitals in Limpopo province, South Africa. Using 4062 pneumonia hospital admission records from 2007 to 2015, a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate temperature-lag and relative humidity-lag pneumonia relationships. Mean temperature, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range were all significantly associated with pneumonia admissions. Cumulatively across the 21-day period, higher mean daily temperature (30 °C relative to 21 °C) was most strongly associated with a decreased rate of hospital admissions (relative rate ratios (RR): 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.14-0.82), whereas results were suggestive of lower mean daily temperature (12 °C relative to 21 °C) being associated with an increased rate of admissions (RR: 1.27, 95%CI: 0.75-2.16). Higher relative humidity (>80%) was associated with fewer hospital admissions while low relative humidity (<30%) was associated with increased admissions. A proportion of pneumonia admissions were attributable to changes in meteorological variables, and our results indicate that even small shifts in their distributions (e.g., due to climate change) could lead to substantial changes in their burden. These findings can inform a better understanding of the health implications of climate change and the burden of hospital admissions for pneumonia now and in the future.

Exploring rural hospital admissions for diarrhoeal disease, malaria, pneumonia, and asthma in relation to temperature, rainfall and air pollution using wavelet transform analysis.

BACKGROUND: Climate variables impact human health and in an era of climate change, there is a pressing need to understand these relationships to best inform how such impacts are likely to change. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate time series of daily admissions from two public hospitals in Limpopo province in South Africa with climate variability and air quality. METHODS: We used wavelet transform cross-correlation analysis to monitor coincidences in changes of meteorological (temperature and rainfall) and air quality (concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2) variables with admissions to hospitals for gastrointestinal illnesses including diarrhoea, pneumonia-related diagnosis, malaria and asthma cases. We were interested to disentangle meteorological or environmental variables that might be associated with underlying temporal variations of disease prevalence measured through visits to hospitals. RESULTS: We found preconditioning of prevalence of pneumonia by changes in air quality and showed that malaria in South Africa is a multivariate event, initiated by co-occurrence of heat and rainfall. We provided new statistical estimates of time delays between the change of weather or air pollution and increase of hospital admissions for pneumonia and malaria that are addition to already known seasonal variations. We found that increase of prevalence of pneumonia follows changes in air quality after a time period of 10 to 15 days, while the increase of incidence of malaria follows the co-occurrence of high temperature and rainfall after a 30-day interval. DISCUSSION: Our findings have relevance for early warning system development and climate change adaptation planning to protect human health and well-being.

Major climate change-induced risks to human health in South Africa.

There are many climatic changes facing South Africa which already have, or are projected to have, a detrimental impact on human health. Here the risks to health due to several alterations in the climate of South Africa are considered in turn. These include an increase in ambient temperature, causing, for example, a significant rise in morbidity and mortality; heavy rainfall leading to changes in the prevalence and occurrence of vector-borne diseases; drought-associated malnutrition; and exposure to dust storms and air pollution leading to the potential exacerbation of respiratory diseases. Existing initiatives and strategies to prevent or reduce these adverse health impacts are outlined, together with suggestions of what might be required in the future to safeguard the health of the nation. Potential roles for the health and non-health sectors as well as preparedness and capacity development with respect to climate change and health adaptation are considered.